World Housing Bubble - All Aboard!

For months, I was clearly the minority in saying that real estate prices in places like China, Australia, Canada, Hong Kong etc are experiencing a bubble. I was also the minority in saying that US home prices are, in fact, undervalued. In recent weeks though, such ideas have become accepted, even mainstream.

By now, I have to admit that I am actually sick of writing about housing bubbles. However, I know from emails I have received that as a result of these articles, at least some people have been dissuaded from purchasing high-priced condos at the edge of personal affordability, and for this I feel that repeating the same message ad nauseum is worth it.

Paradoxically, money tends to flow to assets and areas that are considered "safest," without regard to whether or not they are "reasonably priced." For investors, immediate safety of capital (or immediate gain) is paramount, and everything else is secondary. It is precisely this desire for immediate reward that results in horrible long-term investment choices.

In some countries, such as China, investment dollars are still incoming. In the US, real estate is stagnant water, despite low prices and excellent investment opportunities. In Canada, the flow is now a trickle, and ready to backflow.

The educated media is coming on board. For the masses, the onset of reality will still take several months.

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Video: Bubble Trouble - MSN Money
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See also the previous Frost Report articles:

The World Housing Bubble – Part II

The World Housing Bubble

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Stocks I Like – Left Behind Games

When I was in grade school, I heard people talking about a new heavy metal band (a genre which was then very popular) called “Stryper.” I learned that Stryper was a Christian heavy metal band. That is, they were Christians playing heavy metal, wearing leather pants and singing about Jesus. I thought the whole idea was ridiculous. However, they proved me wrong by selling millions of albums. I learned not to underestimate the size of the Christian marketplace, or the “cool factor” in Christian marketing.

Left Behind Games Inc (dba Inspired Media Entertainment) is a video game company specializing in faith-based videogames. They boast a selection of titles including action games such as its trademark “Left Behind” series, as well as mild-mannered educational games such as the “Charlie Church Mouse” children’s series.

In the past few years, Left Behind has successfully employed guerrilla-marketing techniques to expand its market, such as sending free copies of their video games to young followers. Word of mouth further moves the video games, and encourages these young Christians to buy future titles.

This holiday season, Left Behind Games will go mainstream, with their titles being carried by Wal-Mart in addition to existing Christian retailers.

Left Behind is a true penny stock, selling at the ridiculous price of just $0.003 dollars per share: yes, that’s correct, less than a penny a share. Why, you may ask, would this company be selling at less than a penny a share?

Left Behind is an evangelical Christian company, which in itself offends many. It has been accused of, among other things, making games that instill religious bigotry. In addition, the company’s strength (niche marketing) may also be its weakness from an investor’s standpoint, since they sometimes seem more intent on spreading Christianity than actually making a profit (though they are currently profitable).

Left Behind Games is a controversial and unproven company, in a volatile market with a battered stock that is traded over-the-counter: it doesn’t get any riskier than that. However, since you can currently buy 5,000 shares for the cost of a movie, I feel that a modest investment is warranted. As with all penny stocks, invest only an amount that you would be completely comfortable losing.

If video game sales go well, Left Behind Games (LFBG: OTC BB) may just be the stock purchase that you tell your grandkids about.

For more information, visit: www.leftbehindgames.com/index.php
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"Never underestimate Jesus, because he will just prove you wrong."

Brian Gurney
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The Mortgage Foreclosure Mess

YET ANOTHER KICK AT THE CAN



US Bank stocks skidded downward this week, based on a moratorium on foreclosures. Major US banks, including Wells Fargo and Bank of America, are accused of (among other things) using “robo-signers”: employees who rubber stamp foreclosure documents without properly reviewing them.

The mass-producing and bulk-signing of documents has a disgusting and immoral aura to it, similar to the revulsion for traffic tickets issued by speed radar cameras.

Having an employee decide the fate of someone’s home without reading the documentation is cold-hearted, and people are understandably upset. Having said that, it isn’t like the banks haven’t been trying. Wells Fargo alone has 17 thousand employees working on foreclosure and mortgage modification paperwork: they are simply overwhelmed by the volume.

For the banks, any moratorium on foreclosures is definitely negative. Moving foreclosed homes into the stabilized marketplace has been an order of priority for months now.

As an investor, there is a series of questions that should be asked in any situation where the immediate outlook seems negative. 1) Is this going to reduce earnings, and therefore stock prices? 2) Will this cause the company to go bankrupt, resulting in a permanent loss of capital? 3) Will the reduction in earnings be permanent?

In this case, the answers are clear: yes, this is going to reduce earnings and stock prices (and already has); no, this is not going to cause the major banks to go bankrupt (since their balance sheets are already positioned to withstand major calamities); and no, the reduction in earnings will not be permanent.

As usual, where there is fear there is opportunity.

The big chance to load up on bank stocks was in Feb-Mar of 2009, but there have been several smaller opportunities since: this may be another one. While today’s drop in bank stocks was just a small bump in the 3-year chart, a few more days of declines will result in some real bargains.

Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo and Co. (WFC), and JP Morgan (JPM) have all dropped nicely. That is, four of the biggest banks in America - with the greatest profit potential - are on sale again. Depending on next week's hype, bank stocks could drop even further.

If you missed out on the biggest run (when banking index fund XLF went from $6 to $15 in about a year), this is looking like another fine opportunity.

Hope for fear!

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"If I owe you a Pound, I have a problem; but if I owe you a million (Pounds), the problem is yours."

John Maynard Keynes

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Disclosure
Do not buy stocks, sell short, or take this or any other financial advice without doing your own analysis; including, but not limited to: reviewing business models, financial statements, management style and philosophy, recent developments, market macroeconomic analysis, and chart analysis. If you do not know how to do these things, you shouldn't be buying stocks in the first place. Seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate.