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Sunday, February 20, 2011

Year of the Hot Rabbit



Chinese real estate - hot as ever. But when will it fall?

Last week, the Chinese government implemented yet another measure to reign in the uncontrollable speculation that is gripping the Chinese real estate market.

Already implemented this year were new property sales taxes in Shanghai, and nationwide minimum down payments (for second properties) of 50-60%. This is on top of the Central Bank's three interest rates hikes since October. Now, as of this week, there are new rules for ownership in cities all over the country. In Beijing, for example, only residents are allowed to buy real estate (as proven by 5 years of tax returns and a residence card), and are limited to only one investment property.

It seems that due to strong new beliefs in capitalism, mixed with ancient beliefs about luck and prosperity, no one is getting the hint. Home prices are expected to increase another 6.4% for this year, despite public complaints about soaring costs.

It is impossible to say for how much longer this nonsense will continue. But one thing is certain - the longer it lasts, the more devastating the fall will be. My crystal ball, though hazy, sees the potential for riots.

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"Speculation is only a word covering the making of money out of the manipulation of prices, instead of supplying goods and services."

Henry Ford

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Monday, January 17, 2011

Lessons from Aristocrats - Housing



An elderly client visited my office recently to inquire about the interest rate for a personal loan. The purpose of the loan, he said, was to purchase a new water heater to replace the one that had just broken in his home. The man’s home…a 2.5 million dollar Tudor-style mansion.

This incident reminded me of something that happened to me when I was a college student. I had answered an ad for a basement suite, and was surprised to find myself standing in front of a hundred-year-old residence complete with carved oak staircase, vaulted ceilings, a library, a study, and an observatory. The owner, who had fallen on hard times, had recently converted the damp basement into six rental suites with a shared kitchen, suitable only to college students who will accept this type of accommodation. I kept looking anyway.

Most aristocratic families have, in their history, a successful ancestor who builds a massive family residence to showcase the family’s success. Winston Churchill’s ancestor, the 1st Duke of Marlborough, for instance, built a massive residence named Blenheim Palace.

Subsequent generations develop businesses, pawn heirlooms, gamble, steal, and whatever else is necessary in order to maintain the family estate, some generations more successfully than others. At some point, the family gives up trying to maintain the entire building and moves into a single section, leaving the rest to decay.

Eventually, the family mansion is donated to charity or opened to the public as a tourist attraction, since poor people will pay money to see how rich people live. Sometimes this eventuality takes hundreds of years, and sometimes it occurs within the builder’s lifetime.

The Marlborough family has thus far kept their estate. Due to Winston Churchill’s book royalties, his family has preserved Blenheim palace intact. Before Winston became a famous author (and later politician), the survival of the family residence was in doubt.

In Canada, people have the peculiar habit of moving into larger and larger homes as they become more established, until finally, after the children leave the nest, they find themselves in a home with far more space than they need. In due course they retire, and spend six months of every year in the warm southern United States, living in a camping trailer and enjoying it because it’s “easy to maintain.”

For aristocratic wannabes (easily distinguished by the phrase, “I do a lot of entertaining at home”), remember the lesson you can learn from the mistakes of real aristocrats: buy a home that you can comfortably afford, with rooms that you will actually use. The idea of having 10 extra rooms will bring you much more pleasure that actually owning them.

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"Few rich men own their property; the property owns them."
Robert Ingersoll, speech, New York, 29 October 1896

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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Stocks I Like - Taseko Mines



Taseko Mines (TKO) is a gloriously priced stock, due to investor overreaction to a recent "disaster."

Taseko's Prosperity Mine is a property in British Columbia, Canada, with indicated resources of 7.7 million ounces of gold and 3.6 billion pounds of copper: in other words, it is massive. Importantly, the financial estimates of the mine are based on realistic long-term prices of $1.65/pound for copper and $650/ounce for gold.

In November of 2010, the Federal Ministry of the Environment announced that the Prosperity mine project, as proposed, cannot proceed due to environmental concerns. This is despite already having received approval by the Provincial Government, and Taseko having already built a portion of the proposed expansion.

Today's stock price does not accurately reflect the true value of Taseko mines. First of all, Taseko is not a startup. It already has producing properties, giving it earnings of $0.65 CDN per share, and a current P/E ratio of only 8 (at today closing price of $5.22). In short, even without the Prosperity Mine, Taseko has real value.

Of course, Taseko is not giving up on the expansion of its Prosperity Mine. No one seriously believes that Taseko will abandon 7.7 million ounces of gold and almost 4 billion ounces of copper.

According to the company's website, "Taseko is currently in discussions with both the Federal and Provincial Governments to define the issues and determine solutions so that this mining project can move forward and meet the criteria that the Federal Government deem appropriate. The company expects to have more information early in 2011."

Taseko mines is priced like a lightweight, is already a middleweight, and has heavyweight potential.

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“The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit.”

Ralph Waldo Emerson, poet.

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Disclosure

Do not buy stocks, or take this or any other financial advice without doing your own analysis; including, but not limited to: reviewing business models, financial statements, management style and philosophy, recent developments, market macroeconomic analysis, and chart analysis. If you do not know how to do these things, you shouldn't be buying stocks in the first place. Seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate.

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