A friend of mine in Tokyo described his experience after the great Touhoku earthquake earlier this year. All trains were out of service, so he decided to walk the roughly 60km back home from Yokohama to Tokyo. He walked for about15km, managed to find a taxi to take him part way, then a train, then another taxi, then walked again. Clogged phone services were useless and he could not call his wife. By the time he arrived at his home a day later at 2:30am, his wife had assumed he was dead.
It’s hard to overestimate the trauma experienced by the average Japanese citizen after the tsunami. In some areas of Tokyo, hundreds of kilometres away from the kill zone, driveways are bent, buildings cracked, and stone lanterns at ancient temples toppled. Fears of radiation keep many from swimming in the ocean. Due to the Japanese feeling of belongingness, even people completely outside the quake zone were mentally affected.
In North America, news interest in the tsunami ended months ago. In Japan, stories of the quake and its cleanup are still on TV every day, with live updates of the progress (or lack thereof). "Nippon matsuri," a pine tree that is the only living thing to have survived in the tsunami zone, has become a national symbol of strength, though it now is in danger of dying due to an influx of seawater. “Ganbarou Japan,” an expression roughly translated as “You can do it Japan” and “Go for it, Japan” is plastered on everything from taxis and t-shirts to the quote screen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Virtually everyone says that the biggest change after the earthquake was the shift away from “Americanism;” that is, a shift away from pursuing wealth and career, toward a greater emphasis on spirituality, friends and family. A career advisor, for instance, told me that several of her top female clients had quit their jobs to get married. Japanese economists worry that this shift away from “Americanism” will result in a decline in Japanese productivity, and a stagnant economy.
Mentality aside, the Japanese economy has several things going for it. A slowdown in China will mean better commodity prices for manufacturing. Personal savings rates are high and debt levels low. And, unlike most of the world, real estate prices are reasonable.
In the short-term, the shift toward family and maternity may slow down the Japanese economy. However, Japanese women appear just as stylish as ever, and Japanese men just as interested in drinking parties and electronics. The economic slowdown has not been enough to create shuttered businesses or foreclosed properties.
In the long-term, I suspect that the large-scale rebuilding of Northern Honshu will actually be a stimulus to the Japanese economy for years to come: and the work has barely begun.
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