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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Alternative Energy – Cap and Trade

You’ve heard about Cap and Trade, but what is it?

Before talking about Cap and Trade, one first has to understand pollution control. Note that I am using the term “pollution control” (a tangible, measurable phenomenon) as opposed to “climate change” (a debatable, difficult-to-measure phenomenon).

When talking about pollution control, one has to be sensible. Americans are not going to park their cars and start cycling to work any time soon. On the other hand, it doesn’t make sense to drive your SUV two blocks to buy milk, either. Any good economist will tell you that to control pollution you have to control behavior. This means either putting incentives on green, putting disincentives on brown, or both. And you have to do it without killing the economy.

Say that you own a company that produces 1 tonne of pollutants per day of production. If you were to build infrastructure to reduce that pollution, it would cost you $50/tonne. Since there is a cost with no equivalent savings, there is no inventive to implement pollution control measures. But, if the Government were to start fining you $60 per tonne of pollutants, suddenly there is an incentive not to pollute: your company saves $10/tonne to build the anti-pollution infrastructure. The point is, while free market economics takes care of most issues of industrial production, pollution is rarely one of them. Pollution control has to be mandated.

Measures that have been already been used to control pollution include taxes on gasoline, emissions taxes for corporations, tax credits for buying low-energy home appliances, banning polluting substances (such as DDT and CFCs), and rebates to convert gasoline vehicles to natural gas. So how about Cap and Trade?

Cap and Trade -- also known as cap-and-tax by those who oppose it -- is the name given to a system where a central authority (ex. Government) sets a limit on the amount of pollution that can be emitted. Companies are issued credits, giving them the right to produce a specific amount of pollution (that is reasonably low). If they are efficient (pollute less than their allowance), they can sell their excess credits to other companies for cash. If they are inefficient (pollute more), they need to buy credits from other companies to avoid heavy fines. In other words, there is an economic incentive to meet pollution targets and become more efficient. In theory, it’s a good idea.

The problem with Cap and Trade is that it is complicated and easy to manipulate. If a company manufactures energy-efficient camp stoves, for example, and sells them to African villagers to replace their dung-burning stoves, should they be able to claim credits? If they plant a forest of trees, should they get credits? If a fire destroys the forest, should the credits be taken away? It’s all very opaque. This is not to mention the potential for corruption when big businesses trade credits for cash. And, who decides how many credits to give out, anyway? Will the amount of credits issued rise during an economic crisis, so that businesses can save money?

In my opinion, the best solution is to keep doing what we are already doing. When I visited California as a kid, the smog was so thick it literally made my eyes water. After California passed a law requiring low-emission mufflers, the smog cleared up. When I visited England as a child, households burned coal for heat and buildings looked filthy. Since the government expanded the infrastructure for natural gas and gave incentives to switch, the same buildings now look pristine. When my mother was a child, DDT was a common pesticide. After it was determined to be dangerous, DDT was banned.

The American Clean Energy and Security Act, now in Congress, includes many elements similar to those that have already proven successful; for example, increasing standards of energy efficiency for buildings, modernizing the electrical grid, giving incentives for energy efficient appliances, and requiring large utility companies to obtain some of their energy from renewable sources. But Cap and Trade is also a primary element of the bill.

Cap and Trade isn’t a terrible idea, I just don’t believe it is the best idea. Contrary to some news reports, most major companies support pollution control: it is good for public relations as well as the environment. But they want the playing field to be fair. Existing pollution control measures work and should be expanded. The Cap and Trade portion should be removed and replaced with carbon control measures, tailored to local areas and individual industries.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

U.S. Robin Hood Real Estate, Part II

In last month’s U.S. mortgage refinance program, the Democrats announced a comprehensive plan to help struggling homeowners. The plan allowed homeowners to refinance to a longer amortization (ex. 35 years) or reduce their interest rate in order to make monthly payments more affordable. This Friday’s announcement went one step further, allowing homeowners to actually reduce the amount of principle they owe (ie. write off the debt). In essence, the plan is a mass Chapter 11, funded by the taxpayer.

With this new plan, the home equity gamblers of 2005-2007 have really hit the jackpot. Although they lost equity in the real estate casino (which they chose to enter), the owner of the casino is now handing them their money back. Meanwhile, prudent people who didn’t gamble remain in apartments or living with their parents, driving compact cars instead of SUVs. It’s a deplorable affront to dignity and consequence.

In my view, if the big banks want to modify their mortgages to prevent further losses, they should be encouraged to do so; taxpayers, however, should have no part in it. Painful as it may be, let supply and demand work itself out, and let personal consequences matter.

See also Part I
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“The house doesn't beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.” Nick Dandalos, professional poker player

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

The World Housing Bubble


The title of this article is a bold statement…world housing bubble.

The near-failure of the U.S. economy in 2007 brought with it the ultimate Keynesian response: extremely low interest rates, all across the globe. Shockingly, although countries lowered their rates in response to a real estate collapse in America, the result has been bubble-like housing growth all over the world.

Consider this selection of recent articles…

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CHINA

Overseas realty proves safer bet
“More wealthy Chinese are buying overseas properties for better investment returns as skyrocketing property prices in the country makes domestic home purchases more risky.”

www.cs.com.cn/english/ei/201003/t20100322_2373066.htm


AUSTRALIA

House surge leads to mortgage stress
“VICTORIA'S resurgent housing market is putting borrowers under severe financial strain, even if they are employed or earn more than $80,000 a year.”

www.news.com.au/money/property/house-surge-leads-to-mortgage-stress/story-e6frfmd0-1225843130252


CANADA

House prices to hit record: Scotiabank
"Canada's housing boom will continue this spring as exceptionally low mortgage rates and the expectation that borrowing costs will soon be headed higher – add a sense of urgency to consumer buying."

www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/house-prices-to-hit-record-scotiabank/article1509303/


ISRAEL

This bubble won’t bust, if we build over the Green Line
"The great crisis in the financial market drove people out of financial assets while historical low interest rates made mortgages much cheaper. The feeling that the only safe assets are the old-fashioned ones, first and foremost solid buildings, combined with a wave of foreign Jewish investors rushing to buy homes in the land of the Jews as a kind of an insurance policy drove the prices of homes in Israel to the top."

www.jpost.com/Business/BusinessFeatures/Article.aspx?id=171505


SOUTH KOREA

Housing Market Bubble possibility not high nationwide
"A KCCI representative commented that 'although there are many ongoing debates about the possibility of housing bubble...the possibility of house bubbling is quite low,' and further added that 'we must rather focus and prepare ourselves for the possibility of sudden drops in house prices due to unstable economic situations.'"

english.korcham.net/bbs/viewnotice.asp?code=reports&page=1&id=460&number=460


U.K.

Fears grow that new mortgage drought could hit house prices
"House prices fell 1.5 per cent in February after seven months of uninterrupted growth, according to the Halifax, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender. It says that buyers were deterred from visiting estate agents by the severe cold weather and changes to stamp duty."

www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article7060101.ece


LEBANON

Salameh rules out any real estate bubble
"Central bank Governor Riad Salameh said on Thursday that he does not expect a real-estate bubble to take place in Lebanon, and that the surge in property prices in the country is due to a real increase in demand."

www.beirut-online.net/portal/article.php?id=6669


SWEDEN

Economists reject 'housing bubble' report
"Economists from state-owned mortgage lender SBAB have rejected as unfounded warnings from the National Housing Credit Guarantee Board (BKN) that Sweden stands on the precipice of a house price crash."

www.thelocal.se/25236/20100226/

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The worldwide economic recovery, which is only now taking shape, is threatened by the very thing that started the crisis in the first place: real estate. Only this time it doesn’t just involve a single country.

The world's economies are in a dangerous position. On one hand, increasing rates could slow down or even derail the recovery. On the other hand, the longer interest rates stay low, the more unsustainable long-term real estate prices will become.

Somewhat perversely, the U.S. economy seems to be the real winner here. After two years of suffering, U.S. banks have recapitalized and are sitting on cash; home prices are affordable; consumers have been paying down debt. Although the U.S. economy looks ragged at the moment, it is in the best position to move forward.

One can only hope that the world real estate reversal will be more anticipated, more orderly and more methodical than the earlier U.S. meltdown: yet somehow, I doubt it.

Investors can do some simple things to prepare for the inevitable. First, take some profits and build cash. That does not mean selling all your stocks, for heated markets can rise for much longer than you may think. It does, however, mean selling parts of your portfolio related to housing and construction. It also means making sure that if you have a margin trading account, you are using margin sparingly, if at all.

Most importantly, be vigilant -- which includes checking this website from time to time. When the “things have slowed down but are still fine” headlines start making regular appearances on the news, it’s time to start considering making money on the downside.

As manias subside, the result is never pretty.
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"When money is free [interest rates are lower than inflation], the rational lender will keep on lending until there is no one else to lend to." George Soros