Loose Wallets Sink Ships

How bad is it? Bad.

In many previous articles, I explained the obvious: that the Canadian housing market is grossly overpriced - driven by low interest rates and personal debt - and ripe for a crash.

Many disagreed. Those who disagreed most strongly were, unsurprisingly, those who had bought rental properties or first homes within the last 3 years (for the reason why, see Cognitive Dissonance). Yet, what was obvious to some is slowly becoming obvious to all: the Canadian housing market is sinking.

A recent press release by the Bank of Canada was brutally straightforward: “The slowing since the spring in resale, renovation, and new home construction activity has been driven by a number of factors, including the passing of pent-up and pulled-forward demand; the expiration of the federal Home Renovation Tax Credit in January; the tightening of standards for government-backed insured mortgages that came into effect in April; the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia in July; declining affordability; and subdued income growth.” This painful laundry list is the reality of the Canadian housing market today.

The demise of the housing market has received surprisingly little coverage in Canadian news. In fact, a recent headline in the Financial Post (Ottawa ponders further tightening of mortgage rules) suggests that the housing market is still hot and may require cooling.

Canadian personal debt levels, which have risen along with the housing market, have been a cause of great concern for the Bank of Canada for some time. Again, the Bank of Canada has been blunt, noting that “Canadian households have now collectively run a net financial deficit for 37 consecutive quarters. That is, their investment in housing has outstripped their total savings for over nine straight years.” The Bank of Canada concludes in a single line, “This cannot continue.”

Debt levels have reached the point where any further increase in interest rates – which may be necessary to combat inflation – will strain Canadian families. If inflation rises, the BOC may be forced to raise interest rates and push those citizens who are now “just hanging on” into bankruptcy.

The Canadian housing market’s decline is just beginning. How long this process will take is anyone’s guess, but it will likely be measured in years, not months. A decline in value of an asset class this large ensures no quick recovery.

_____

To review the progression...

The Canadian Housing Market
Canadian Debt II
Spin City
The Canadian Housing Bubble - CREA to the Rescue
The Canadian Real Estate Market: Trouble in the Pipeline
Canadian Real Estate: Stick a Fork in It

The Bank of Canada - Employment in a Modest Recovery
____

"Results - Fall 2010

The Canadian Real Estate Association says first-time home buying activity is slowing. What’s happening in your region?

I’m seeing more first-time homebuyers this year - 24%
I’m seeing fewer first-time homebuyers this year - 66%
I haven’t noticed a change - 10%

Genworth Financial Canada - The Homeownership CompanyPrime Source"

A recent poll by Genworth Financial Corp, given to mortgage brokers and bankers across Canada
____

Is the US Recovery in Danger?

This week saw low sales numbers in housing, lowered (but still rising) durable goods orders, and a generally pessimistic attitude all across the board.

In fact, “pessimistic” may be an understatement. One website effectively summarized the prevailing mood: “Things will never get better. We are all doomed.”

One of many problems with doom and gloom reporting is the resulting dialectical materialism (George Soros calls it “reflexivity”). When people believe something it can become a reality, even if it wasn’t a reality at the time people began to believe it. For example, if people believe there is an increasing chance they will lose their jobs or homes due to recession, they will curtail their spending, thereby causing the recession that they feared. Despite the reflexivity effect, however, I do not believe that this recovery is endangered.

Consumer “entrenchment mentality” is already in full force, and has been for some time. As noted earlier in The Frost Report (The Spending Zone), Americans have been paying off their debts and increasing their savings for seven months straight, and are almost at the point where their free cash flow will increase substantially. As a result of these debt repayments and savings, consumer credit scores are already the highest they have been since 1998.

The corporate world largely reflects the personal one: businesses have vast amounts of emergency cash, have paid down and/or refinanced debts, and have streamlined staff and operations. Corporate America is mean and hungry. With solid balance sheets and low stock prices, M&A activity should rise soon and remain high for months.

The combination of high cash flow, lower debts, higher savings, and excellent credit ratings simply does not match the “we are all doomed” mentality. Similar to cult members who wait for the mother ship, at some point people will realize that the economic apocalypse they are preparing for is simply not going to occur.

Based on the numbers, I suspect that this revelation will strike the US consumer within the next 3 quarters. Regular (if not exceptional) spending will resume shortly thereafter, and corporate America will follow suit with mergers, expansions and hiring.

Though the international picture is deteriorating, it will not be enough to derail the US turnaround.
____

“Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street.”

The Times of London, November 2, 1929
____

The Patriotism of Debt

aka THE JONESES ARE IDIOTS

The Federal Reserve stated today that U.S. consumer borrowing fell yet again in February, the 12th month of decline in 13 months. In other words, for the past year consumers have been paying off their credit cards and purchasing using cash.

In the short term, it is "bad" when people pay off their credit card debt, because that money was not spent on the economy. On the practical side, citizens with low levels of debt build an economy that is more stable and with real prosperity. Nations of savers become nations of creditors, and nations of creditors rule the world. So, in a sense, it's your duty to pay off your debts and save money.

Most advice one hears about paying off debts includes things like, "pay off your highest balance cards first," or "get a second job," none of which get to the heart of the issue: psychology. Thus, the advice you will find here is not of the traditional variety, but is instead straightforward advice that you may not want to hear, with no punches pulled.

__

Rule #1 - F**k Appearances

One of the most remarkable things I see as a banker is how many people are drowning in debt and worried, yet who continue to spend lavishly. In cities they host dinner parties, travel, and go on shopping sprees. In rural areas, they buy pickup trucks and motorbikes. That is, they act like they are rich, except of course that they aren't. If this describes you, read on.

Keeping up appearances is a financial killer. At the next opportunity, say to your friends, "You know, I've been spending so much money recently, I can't afford to do that." The first time you say this to your friends they may be surprised. But the fact is, everyone has a limit to how much they can spend. You may find that people encourage you and say, "We wondered where you were getting the money from!"

Are you worried that your friends will think less of you if you can't keep up your current lifestyle? If so, then they weren't really your friends in the first place.

___

Rule #2 - Keep Your Housing Costs Low

You should spend no more than 32% of your household's pre-tax income toward housing (ex. mortgage and taxes, or rent). For instance, a single person who earns $5000 per month should spend no more than $1600 a month on housing. A person who spends more than this level will find it difficult - if not impossible - to save money and still have a life.

If you are currently spending more than 32% of your income on housing, you have to move. Sell your house and downsize if you have to. If you are already in the cheapest housing available and still spending more than 32%, you need to look for a new job, because yours doesn't pay enough.

__

Rule #3 - Read your Statements

Many people - especially those in debt - have a habit of opening their credit card or bank statements and only reading the balance (if they open the letter at all). Ignoring your statements won't make the debt go away. Instead, check every single line on your statements. You may be surprised to find hidden charges, extra fees, or simply that your last night out cost more than you remember. Reading your statements will give you a clear and honest look at your monthly spending.

__

Rule #4 - Forget about Monthly Payments

"Low monthly payments" have a way of making large purchases seem insignificant: don't fall for it. If you owe $10,000 and your monthly payment is only $50, you still owe ten thousand dollars.

As a rule, never buy anything on credit that declines in value, except for a basic automobile. That means no stereos, no sofas, no washing machines on credit. No dinners or movies, either.
__

Rule #5 - Do a Walkaround

Before you make small purchases, do a store walkaround. That is, leave the item on the shelf, walk around the store, browse, chat, and if 5 minutes later you still want to buy the item, go ahead. You will find that after a few minutes of contemplation, what you thought you wanted may not be so desirable after all.
__

Rule #6 - Calculate HTB

HTB stands for "Hours to Buy." Take a look at your pay stub, and see how many hours you worked and what your final pay was. Then, use the numbers to calculate your hourly income after all deductions. For example, if you get paid $1500 every two weeks (after taxes and deductions), your hourly income would be $1500/80 Hrs = $18.75, or roughly $19 an hour. When you want to buy a large item, think about how many hours you had to work to pay for it. If a $1200 television takes 63 hours of work ($1200/$19 = 63) to buy, is it worth it? If you think so, then you can buy it with your savings. If you don't think it's worth so many hours of work, don't buy it.

__

Although spending money on credit is fun at first, seeing your savings grow and savoring the possibilities is even better. You owe it to yourself to enjoy life while at the same time preparing for the future, and once you start you'll find it isn't hard. In fact, it's amazing how quickly you can "get ahead" once you really try with no excuses.
_____

"What you don't spend, you don't have to earn." Lou Krieger, The Poker Player's Bible.