Thursday, January 21, 2010
The bubble is back.
Not content with a single housing bubble, Canadians have apparently decided to ignore reality and give it a second go, especially in Vancouver. Just a few days ago, my mortgage broker confirmed that, just like in the bubble years, multiple bids on properties are back with a vengeance. A typical, two-bedroom bungalow/rancher in the West Side is now priced at 1.3 million dollars, right back to where it was at the peak in 2008.
A few different factors are responsible for this brutal overpricing. First is the typical Vancouverite’s belief that theirs is the greatest city in the world. Granted, Vancouver is a nice place. But, everyone seems to believe the city is so spectacular that Olympic visitors will return to London, Paris, Tokyo etc. and immediately put their homes up for sale so they can move to Vancouver.
Second and more important is the Asian factor. In Vancouver a substantial number of immigrants, mostly from China, are buying residences primarily or completely in cash. Cash purchases are a big factor in propping up high prices; however, they are an even bigger factor in the decision making process for local buyers. Vancouverites are convinced that because of immigration, prices cannot drop; therefore, any price is justifiable, as one will always find a buyer at that new higher price (in economics, this is known as “greater fool theory.”)
Finally, the average Canadian is making a mistake typical for those who know little about finance: they are concentrating on monthly payment amount instead of amount of debt owed. To the financially naive, owing $500,000 at a 2.25% variable interest rate with a monthly payment of $1718 is better than owing $400,000 at a fixed rate of 4% with monthly payments of $1763. More importantly, people are not aware that today's 2.25% variable interest rate, and the resulting barely-affordable monthly payment, will soon be going up.
The governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, is trying his best to send out the warning ("It is the responsibility of households now to ensure that in the future, when the recovery takes hold and extraordinary measures are unwound, they can service their debts”), but it’s largely falling on deaf ears. While Americans have spent the last two years paying down their credit card and mortgage debt, Canadians have been busy racking it up. The Bank of Canada estimates that by the 4rth quarter of 2011, Canadian personal debt payments will reach record-breaking levels (shattering the previous record set in 2000).
Of course, after the housing bubble bursts for the second time, we’ll probably hear a chorus of, “It’s the fault of the banks. They shouldn’t be approving these loans in the first place!” As a banker, I can say without hesitation that trying to tell a customer they can’t afford to buy their dream home is like telling a child they can’t have ice cream: they throw a tantrum, threaten to run away (take their business elsewhere), and frequently do exactly that. If the next bank doesn’t approve them, they will keep trying until someone does, eventually lying about their assets or income if necessary. People don’t seem to realize that when your banker (who wants to give out loans) tells you that you can’t afford it, maybe you should listen.
And so, the bubble grows…