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Sunday, May 15, 2011

The Glencore IPO



Swiss-based commodity trading company Glencore is set to reveal the pricing of its IPO this week for the dual markets of London and Hong Kong. Glencore’s IPO will be one of the largest ever, with an estimated value of $12 billion dollars.

What makes Glencore fascinating is what the company is, and how it came about.

Glencore was founded as “Marc Rich and Company” in 1974. As described by Vanity Fair magazine in 2001, Marc Rich is "defined by his money, the kind of wealth that moves governments and transcends borders.”

Marcell David Reich obtained his wealth through being a highly skilled commodities trader, unrestricted by moral or ethical boundaries. That is, he got rich by what most people would consider immoral and/or criminal behavior.

Marc Rich is an avowed fan of writer Ayn Rand, a Russian-born American whose primary philosophical ideas are that greed and selfishness are good (called “rational self-interest”); that a person can decide for himself what is moral and what isn’t (no one can tell you what to do); and, that weak people do not deserve to be loved. For obvious reasons, Ayn Rand’s philosophies are favorites for those with narcissistic and borderline personality disorders.

Rich is known for doing business with dictators and zealots throughout the world, and in fact admits as much (his theory is that if he didn’t deal with them, someone else would). Most famously, he traded oil with Iran during the Iranian hostage crisis, thereby disobeying the US embargo. He later admitted that it was his most profitable business transaction ever.

As a result of this action and others, Rich soon found himself on America’s “most wanted” list. He renounced his American citizenship, and has since held Bolivian, Spanish and Israeli citizenships.

When Marc’s daughter Gabrielle contracted leukemia in 1996, he was reportedly distraught at not being able to visit her in the US. When she died at age 27, he pleaded with the US government to be allowed to attend the funeral, but was denied.

Powerful people – including Rich’s ex-wife Denise - lobbied the Clinton administration and eventually had Rich pardoned for his crimes (on Clinton’s last day in office), but Rich has nonetheless never stepped foot in the US since. He believes that although he has received an official pardon, if he were to actually go back to the US he would be arrested on some new charge.

In 1994, Rich was forced out of his own company - for endangering the firm through risky trades - and sold his stake in the company now known as Glencore.

Still working as a commodities trader, Rich now spends most of his time in Switzerland. He enjoys skiing at St. Moritz, collecting impressionist art, and drinking champagne. According to biographer Daniel Ammann, he still cries whenever his departed daughter’s name is mentioned. Like many in his situation, Rich is also active in charity work.

Glencore’s official “history of the company” website doesn’t even mention Rich’s name; it is apparently a connection they would rather forget.


On a personal note, I owe a great deal to Marc Rich. When I first read about Marc Rich and his ideas, I was so appalled that it served partly as the inspiration for the “Morality and Ethics” section of my book, The Intelligent Investor’s Mind.

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“Justice is unrelenting. Creative individuals and undeviating purpose and rationality achieve joy and fulfillment. Parasites who persistently avoid either purpose or reason perish as they should.”

Alan Greenspan, defending the philosophy of Ayn Rand in a 1957 letter to the New York Times.

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Ayn Rand - first of a two-part interview with Mike Wallace, 1959

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Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Fear and Soap in China



It's the fear.

In The Frost Report I have written numerous times about the incredible rise in home prices (ie. real estate bubble) that will overcome China at some point in the future.

Chinese authorities and news agencies are incredibly open and honest about the whole situation. On May 5th, for instance, Chinese news agency Xinhua noted that, “rocketing home prices have become a major source of public complaint across China. The government raised the down payment and mortgage rates notably for the non-first home buyers to crack down on hoarding and speculation, but house prices still remain stubbornly high.” With the sense of invincibility common to the nouveau riche, wealthy Chinese citizens completely ignore warnings like this and keep buying.

Not limited to real estate, prices in China are rising for just about everything. Citizens fear that they will soon be unable to afford the necessities of life. How bad is this fear? Well, just ask Unilever China.

This March, a spokesperson for Unilever China announced that due to inflation, as of April 1st the company would be raising prices by 10-15%.

Consumers responded by panicking.

Worried about paying more for popular products like Lux soap, Omo detergent and Lipton tea, consumers flooded stores and began stocking up. Shelves soon cleared of products for both Unilever and those of competitor Proctor and Gamble. Nervous government officials warned retailers to order more inventory and keep up with the demand.

For the month of March, retailers reported sales of up to ten times the normal volume for Unilever products. On May 6th, unimpressed Chinese trade officials handed Unilever a two million yuan fine (about $300K US) for “disrupting market order.”

By making a simple announcement – “we will be raising prices” – Unilever exposed just how much inflationary fear exists in the Chinese market. People are buying not because they want to, but because they feel they have to. This new lifestyle is expensive.

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“I hate to say this, but this place is getting to me. I think I'm getting the Fear.”

Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

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see also:

REFILE-P&G and Unilever raise prices in China -paper

China punishes Unilever for price hike remarks

China's banking regulator denies report of down payment rise

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Monday, May 9, 2011

Citigroup: the 1-for-10 reverse split



Some Citigroup shareholders woke up this morning to a surprise; they found that the price of their stock had jumped from around $4.50 to $44.00!

Unfortunately, today’s price jump was not an overnight stock rush, but merely a 1-for-10 reverse split. That is, if you owned 10 shares of Citigroup on Friday with earnings of $0.31 per share, you now own 1 share of Citigroup with $3.10 of earnings per share. In other words, aside from the price, there is no material change in your ownership. Why would Citigroup do this?

CNBC suggested on its website that the reverse split was done to “improve investor’s opinion” of the stock. Other blogs have suggested that doing a 1-for-10 reverse split is a way to “trick” or “fool” investors into thinking they are buying a better company.

Pardon me for saying, but if you think that a $40 stock is “better” than a $4 stock, or a $100 per share company is “better” than a $50 per share company, you need to stop buying stocks until you know what you are doing.

In fact, there are several good reasons for doing a 1-for-10 split, none of which are listed above.

The first reason is to counter day trading. When a stock has a low price but trades with high volume (like Citigroup), it becomes a favorite with day traders. For a low priced stock, a change of a few cents means a few percentage points, and so such trades can be profitable for a day trader. Unfortunately, day traders do not add value to a company the way that long-term shareholders do. Increasing the share price helps keep day traders out and, according to Citi CEO Vikram Pandit, therefore reduces volatility. In the very short-term, the exit of day traders will likely cause a drop in Citi’s stock price.

The second reason is to bring in potential institutional buyers, such as mutual funds. Many mutual funds are not allowed to purchase a stock that is priced below a certain threshold, usually $5 or $10. At $4.50, many mutual funds are simply not allowed to buy shares, no matter how good the company might be as an investment. Although a 1-for-10 reverse split doesn’t really change anything except the price, more mutual fund managers will now be able to buy Citi shares.

The third reason is to allow pension funds to buy the shares. Just as many mutual funds are not allowed to buy stock worth less than $5 per share, many pension funds are not allowed to buy a stock that does not pay a dividend. With 29 billion shares outstanding previously, Citigroup would have found it difficult to pay even a token $0.01 dividend per share. As of today, there are 1/10th as many shares, and so Citigroup can once again introduce a dividend. Once this dividend is in place, more pension funds will be allowed to buy.

Aside from growing revenue and earnings, part of any good company’s strategy is to manage their stock. Institutional investors and pension funds add stability, since they tend to hold for weeks or months rather than just hours. And, if many institutional investors buy and hold, this limits the availability of the stock, driving up prices.

Today’s 10-for-1 reverse split was an immaterial - yet smart - long-term move for Citigroup.

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"You never want to think the best things are in the past. You want to get yourself to believe that the best things are going to be in the future."

Sandy Weill, former CEO of Citigroup


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