US Housing Market strong for Softwood

The US housing market has gone from disaster to doldrums.  Although some areas have bounced back quickly (New York and San Francisco most notably), the overall market appears to be stagnant.  But is it?  To know the real story, take a look at the industry that supplies the hungry US market.

 

Major Canadian softwood manufacturers, whose precarious profitability depends upon accurate forecasting, are predicting US housing starts of 835-900,000 in 2013, up from an estimated 746,000 in 2012.  By comparison, housing starts hit a low of 558,000 in 2008.

 

Already, the composite price of Random Lengths framing lumber (the most common wood used in homebuilding) has risen 27% in 2012, both from increased demand and the expectation of more.

 

The US housing recession is not over.  Yet, with immigration and family development continuing faster than housing starts, a full recovery is only a matter of time.

 

Doubting the US housing recovery is a popular pastime at present - but it is not wise to bet against such obvious statistics.

 

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"The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time."

 

Abraham Lincoln

 

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Live Long

 

After one has attained a significant degree of wealth, there is nothing better than the joy of a long and healthy life that allows one to take advantage of it.

 

A new study in the journal Current Biology suggests that there is a secret to extraordinary longevity in men: castration.

 

The study looked at historical data from ancient Korean aristocrats and the eunuchs (castrated servants) that worked in their households, and found that the eunuchs lived, on average, 19 years longer than their fully intact counterparts.

 

Testosterone, while making men strong and sexually potent, appears to also cause heart complications and weakened immune responses in later life.

 

Though the case for longevity through castration is strong, it is expected that few men will rush to take advantage of this new information.

 

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“We’re here for a good time, not a long time.”

 

70s rock band Trooper

 

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Stagnation in the Canadian Housing Market

A LESSON IN TIMING, INCENTIVES, AND PSYCHOLOGY

The Aug 8^th 2012 edition of Canada’s Globe & Mail newspaper boldly stated that the country’s economists had reached a consensus: the bloated housing market will first slip 10-15%, and then “stagnate for years.”

The Frost Report has been warning prospective buyers about the coming decline of Canadian (and world) home prices since the first peak of February and March 2010 (see Spin City).  So, why are economists lagging so far behind?

First, the news is coming out now because it can.  The economists in the article -- who are employed by financial institutions -- have nothing left to lose since the market is “effectively exhausted” (their words).  People who have already bought homes have given the banks and brokerages their business, and can no longer benefit from the advice.  Those who don’t have homes after years of low interest rates either can’t afford them or don’t want them.

Secondly, economists have virtually no natural incentive to accurately predict slowdowns and price declines.  Nasty predictions about the most popular investment in the country (real estate) are unpopular, unwanted, and of no benefit to the companies who employ economists.

And then there are the clients…

It’s dangerous to advise a client not to buy real estate.  Contrary to what is taught in most investment psychology manuals, clients take declines in prices (“who could have known?”) far better than missed opportunities (“you said not to buy and prices went up 50%!”).  Furthermore, a client who has already decided to buy (which is typically why they are speaking with a banker or real estate agent in the first place) will never, ever listen to advice anyway.  If a client, who has already decided to buy, asks a banker if it’s a good time to do so and the banker replies, “I don’t believe it is,” that client will usually spend the next 15-20 minutes explaining to the banker why he is wrong.

The Cinderella party in Canadian housing is officially over.  I sincerely hope that the moderate 10-15% decline predicted by the nation’s top economists is accurate – but I doubt it.

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See also:

Canadian house prices to slip, then likely stagnate for years

Summer chill cools Toronto, Vancouver property markets

 
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