Rare Earth Metals – China’s Trump Card?

Historical enemies Japan and China are at it again, this time about a disputed territory in the Diaoyu islands (known as the Senkaku islands in Japan).

On Sept 7th, two Japanese coast guard ships collided with a Chinese fishing vessel (or perhaps spy ship, since fishing vessels are used as spy ships by many nations). The Chinese captain (agent?) is now incarcerated in Japan, and Chinese officials are demanding his release.

There are many uninhabited "islands" in the oceans East of Japan, some of which are no more than lumps of rock a few inches above sea level, surrounded by concrete and tetrapods so they don’t wash away. The islands are important, of course, because whoever owns them can claim the surrounding mineral rights. At least, this is the presumption, despite a UN convention that “rocks that cannot sustain human or economic life of their own shall have no exclusive economic zone…”

What is interesting about this most recent incident is that China may be playing the “rare earth metals trump card" to end the conflict.

Rare earth metals are used in batteries, wind turbines, lasers, cell phones and other high-tech devices. In this latest diplomatic incident, China's customs clearance of rare earth metals into Japan has been “delayed.” China of course denies that they have implemented a trade ban.

Since China produces the vast majority of the world’s rare earth metals (more than 97% by some estimates), rare earth could become a handy negotiating tool for China in the future.

There is no doubt that rare earth metals - and therefore rare earth mining - will be an important area for investors to watch in the years to come.
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See also:

Govt Probing China's Rare Earth Trade Embargo

China will never waiver on issue of sovereignty: experts

Chinese people's willingness to travel to Japan drops amid diplomatic dispute

China denies tightening rare earth trade

Mabuchi worried about China fallout
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“Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.”

Confucius
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Thank you, Frost Report Readers!

Last Wednesday marked the 10,000th unique visitor to the pages of The Frost Report.

I would like to thank all those who have visited my site, and all those who took the time to email me with their feedback and ideas (marketsandfinance AT gmail.com).

I try to reach strong conclusions only after studying all the facts (never predetermined), and point out prevailing illogical bias whenever possible. I am suspicious of any news article that gives opinions without revealing the facts that formed them. And, as every good investor should, I regularly try to prove myself wrong.
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Spin City

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The US Economy - Headed in the Right Direction?
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Thanks again for your readership, and cheers to more insight in the future!

E. Frost,
The Frost Report

Mad About Taxes

The media and the public are divided and angry.

Some people, such as billionaire Warren Buffett, say that tax increases for the rich are “fair,” since the rich currently pay less tax than the poor. For others, any increase in taxes for the wealthy is an example of socialist government, and a disincentive for hard work.

The expiration of the Bush tax cuts has been called “the wrong move at the wrong time.” This expiration, combined with Obama’s proposed tax increases for those earning more than $200,000 per year has been dubbed the “small business killer.” Should we be worried?

When I worked as a lender, a consistent thing I noticed about small business owners is that they claim to have almost no income. A man could own a successful business, drive a Mercedes and take annual vacations to France, yet according to his company's financial statements be making $20,000 a year. This was normal.

For lenders, the financial statements of small business owners can be frustrating. Owners typically often write off so much (to avoid taxes) that it becomes difficult to approve their loans.

“Just show a little more income next year,” lenders often tell business owners.
“But then I will have to pay income tax," the owners counter. "You know I make lots of money. Can’t you just approve it?”

The proposed tax changes would raise taxes for individuals earning $200,000 per year, or families earning $250,000 per year, with lower taxes for those earning less: this is hardly a small business killer. A small business owner that shows an income of $200,000 per year would, in all likelihood, be earning at least 3 times that much - and there are simply not many small businesses pulling in that level of income.

Then there is the debate about lowering taxes for the middle class. Many members of the middle class themselves are opposed. Personally, I find this hilarious. One of my favorite things about the GOP is that they have actually convinced people earning less than $200K a year that tax cuts for the rich are good for the economy, but tax cuts for themselves are unnecessary. I love it! Gullibility knows no limits.

From an economic standpoint, lowering taxes for the nation’s middle class makes sense. The middle class tends to live “paycheck to paycheck,” spending almost everything they earn. Any decrease in taxes (increase in money to spend) would go directly into the local economy. High-income earners, on the other hand, tend to save more, or spend their money overseas. In terms of boosting the economy, a tax decrease for low- and medium-income earners gives far more bang for the buck.

Being that the US has a record deficit, somebody’s taxes need to increase. Increasing taxes for corporations is a bad idea, since unemployment is still far too high and corporations are the nations largest employers. Tax increases for the middle class is also a bad idea, since their spending levels (which constitute most of the US economy) are already low. The wealthy are the best choice for tax increases, because their personal spending levels will be least affected.

Tax cuts for the rich after the economy is rolling smoothly again – sure, why not? Everyone believes in the American dream. Everyone believes that someday, they too will earn more than $200,000 per year. And, they want to make sure tax levels are low when they get there.
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“In 1790, the nation which had fought a revolution against taxation without representation discovered that some of its citizens weren't much happier about taxation with representation.”

President Lyndon B Johnson